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View the original here: Fed "Workhorse" Model Says Odds of Recession in Next Year Only 3.56%; What are the Real…
See more here: New Home Sales Surge but Prices Down Sharply; Prices Have Room to Fall; Is Everybody In?
How Healthy Is the Labor Market, Really? What’s the "official" unemployment rate vs. economic reality
Conference Board Consumer Survey The consumer conference board does a paper survey every month on consumer confidence. The board’s technical notes say (emphasis mine) "The targeted responding sample size – approximately 3,000 completed questionnaires – has remained essentially unchanged throughout the history of the CCI." I called up the board with a simple question: How many surveys do you send out to get 3,000 completed questionnaires
The Wall Street Journal hits the nail on the head with this headline: Yuan’s Fall Is Just ‘Noise’ Amid Deeper China Woes . When the financier George Soros attacked the British pound in 1992 and famously “broke the Bank of England†he was trading on a conviction that the currency was misaligned. Britain devalued after squandering its reserves in a vain defense.
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View article: Dallas Fed Region Activity Plunges to Lowest Reading Since 2009; Production Collapsed
More: Debunking the Myth "Consumer Spending is 67% of GDP"
More: East Coast Blizzard – Some Love It: Legal Sledding on Capitol Hill First Time in 140 Years; Panda "Tian…