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toto said… My understanding is that "short-centering" was actually a bona-fide bug. If you’re computing a covariance matrix by simply multiplying the data with its own inverse, "short-centering" the data around the recent past will produce "fake covariance" of all series with the hockey-stickish series (with a negative sign, but that’s irrelevant).The actual PCs being computed are the same, but the ‘hockey-stickish’ ones now seem to explain much more of the variance – spuriously so.Unfortunately the auditor-in-chief proceeded to introduce a bug of his own, by keeping the same number of PCs as Mann after full-centering the matrix, even though by then you need to include more PCs to capture sufficient variance
Tweet Nick Stokes has his teeth into the hockey stick for a while. Â Back in 2011 he explored Deep Climate’s exposure of the Wegman hanky panky, Nick found that if you didn’t do the cherry pick the results were much less hockey stick like for decentered PCs Then this March Nick explaned how McIntyre and McKitrick effectively truncated the Gaspe cedar series by fifty years, leaving, well not very much or really not very much global data for 1400-1450. Â MBH had padded out that series from its end in 1404 by persistence, but a Steve McIntyre relied on a narrow reading (and Steve McIntyre is famed for such) of MBH 98 to justify that step, except they were very legalistic in not clearly explaining what they had done, until Nick Stokes worked his way through the thicket
Excerpt from: Nathan Drake vs., Steve McIntyre on the Spirit of Mawson Matter
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UPDATE: An English version of Jos Hagelaars Dutch post is now available on Our Changing Climate. Eli appreciates their recognition that this indeed is the Wheelchair Curve Jos Hagelaar s splicing of the Shakun, Marcott, HadCRUT4 and CMIP5 A1B temperature anomaly reconstructions is clearly going to become iconic . Icons, like the hockey stick, need names. Eli was playing around with a few, the beach chair, the Barca lounger the airplane seat, none quite fit, until the Rabett thought about what we are doing to our world Oh yes, FWIW, the spike at the end is the instrumental record and the CMIP5 models of our future based on our current behavior and has nothing to do with how accurate the Marcott reconstruction is at recent times. Indeed that is the strength of Hagelaar’s wheelchair, that it uses multiple sources to give us the big picture in one figure.
Jos Hagelaars has spliced together Shakun et al, Marcott et al, HadCRUT4 and the A1B scenario Hogelaars points out that Marcott pretty much agrees with previous work where there is overlap and it is indeed a wonder how many posts that Willard Tony’s gang is generating on this. As for climate audit, well in Jos’ words the “statistical wonderboy McIntyre blogs merrily along. The reader would otherwise come to the conclusion that humans strongly influencing the climate, and of course that is not exactly desirable.” An important point in Marcott is that it pretty well delineates the start of the Anthropocene , about 150 years ago, when we added the blade to the hockey stick Google does a fair job translating and Eli will not step on Jos and Bart’s toes by attempting same (Dutch is close enough to German that Eli can Grok it given incentive)
View article: Is Inflation the Legacy of the Federal Reserve?
Taken from: Driverless cars, high speed rail, and climate comedy
