Hard hitting global and local news
Hard hitting global and local news
More: Rick Piltz of Climate Science Watch Has Died
Eli Rabett Eli Rabett Eli Rabett is a not quite failed professorial techno-bunny, a chair election from retirement, at a wanna be research university that has a lot to be proud of but has swallowed the Kool-Aid. The students are naive but great and the administrators vary day-to-day between homicidal and delusional
Error Over Quota This application is temporarily over its serving quota.
toto said… My understanding is that "short-centering" was actually a bona-fide bug. If you’re computing a covariance matrix by simply multiplying the data with its own inverse, "short-centering" the data around the recent past will produce "fake covariance" of all series with the hockey-stickish series (with a negative sign, but that’s irrelevant).The actual PCs being computed are the same, but the ‘hockey-stickish’ ones now seem to explain much more of the variance – spuriously so.Unfortunately the auditor-in-chief proceeded to introduce a bug of his own, by keeping the same number of PCs as Mann after full-centering the matrix, even though by then you need to include more PCs to capture sufficient variance
Tweet Nick Stokes has his teeth into the hockey stick for a while. Â Back in 2011 he explored Deep Climate’s exposure of the Wegman hanky panky, Nick found that if you didn’t do the cherry pick the results were much less hockey stick like for decentered PCs Then this March Nick explaned how McIntyre and McKitrick effectively truncated the Gaspe cedar series by fifty years, leaving, well not very much or really not very much global data for 1400-1450. Â MBH had padded out that series from its end in 1404 by persistence, but a Steve McIntyre relied on a narrow reading (and Steve McIntyre is famed for such) of MBH 98 to justify that step, except they were very legalistic in not clearly explaining what they had done, until Nick Stokes worked his way through the thicket
Read this article: We don’t know everything, but we know enough!
See APS policy review "The members of the Subcommittee are: Steven Koonin (chair), Phillip Coyle, Scott Kemp, Tim Meyer, Robert Rosner and Susan Seestrom."(That was not in WSJ, but I suspect will appear, given some of the other APS history below.)Arthur mentioned that. People might explore that, and check out the bios of those who attended the workshop, several of whom are quite famous for uncertainty.I’m an APS (and APS GPC ) member, and I certainly have not yet seen a statement put up for review
Eli Rabett Eli Rabett Eli Rabett is a not quite failed professorial techno-bunny, a chair election from retirement, at a wanna be research university that has a lot to be proud of but has swallowed the Kool-Aid.
More: A Note About Roger Revelle, Justin Lancaster and Fred Singer