Tag: acting

February 1, 2016 0

"Blue Chip" Optimism vs. GDPNow 1.2% 2016 Initial Q1 Forecast; Strengths and Weaknesses of GDPNow

By News Desk

"Blue Chip" Optimism The Atlanta Fed initial GDPNow Forecast for first quarter 2016 starts off with an anemic 1.2% whimper. "The initial GDPNow model forecast for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the first quarter of 2016 is 1.2 percent on February 1. " First Quarter 2016 GDPNow Forecast The Atlanta Fed "Final" GDPNow Estimate for the 4th Quarter was posted on January 28

January 26, 2016 0

Retail Sales vs. Consumer Confidence; Unwarranted Fed Faith in Wrong Surveys

By News Desk

Conference Board Consumer Survey The consumer conference board does a paper survey every month on consumer confidence. The board’s technical notes say (emphasis mine) "The targeted responding sample size – approximately 3,000 completed questionnaires – has remained essentially unchanged throughout the history of the CCI." I called up the board with a simple question: How many surveys do you send out to get 3,000 completed questionnaires

January 26, 2016 0

"Temporary" Capital Controls Coming to China?

By News Desk

The Wall Street Journal hits the nail on the head with this headline: Yuan’s Fall Is Just ‘Noise’ Amid Deeper China Woes . When the financier George Soros attacked the British pound in 1992 and famously “broke the Bank of England†he was trading on a conviction that the currency was misaligned. Britain devalued after squandering its reserves in a vain defense.